4th Quarter Albums Prognostication Scorecard – Take 2!


Florida Georgia Line, Anything Goes © Republic Nashville

In September 2014, I penned a post entitled Prognosticating 4th Quarter Albums!, where I gave my predictions for the sales of some notable albums being released in late September and onward.  Now that seven 12 of those albums have sales figures (one still in progress), let’s see how sound my predicting skills were!

1) Chris Brown, (RCA, 9/16)

Chris Brown, X © RCA

Prediction: 

…Brown might open >100,000 as he did with previous albums, or he might find himself underperforming, selling below 100,000 copies.

Result:

Chris Brown debuted at #2, selling 146,000.  That means that the prediction “Brown might open > 100,000 copies” was right.  Prediction Correct !

Correct:  Incorrect: 0   (1-0) 

2) Barbra Streisand, Partners (Columbia, 9/16)

Barbra Streisand, Partners © Columbia

Prediction:

Vocal albums tend to do relatively well, and Streisand has managed to maintain a solid following… Being realistic, Streisand will likely sell below 100,000 copies too.

Result:

Barbra Streisand debuted at #1, selling a surprisingly robust 196,000 copies.  Not only was Streisand’s first week big, so was her second and third weeks, selling 127,000 and 73,000 and keeping her firmly planted in the top 3 of the Billboard 200.  Prediction Dead Wrong! 

Correct:  Incorrect✖ (1-1)

3) Lady Gaga & Tony Bennett, Cheek to Cheek (Columbia/ Interscope, etc. 9/23)

Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga, Cheek To Cheek © Streamline/Columbia/Interscope

Prediction:

…Cheek to Cheek should easily sell over 100,000 copies, possibly closer to the 200,000+ copies mark Duets reached years ago (NOTE: Duets II debuted at #1, but sold 179,000 copies).

 Result:

Cheek To Cheek debuted at #1, selling 131,000.  While the “possibly closer to the 200,000+ copies mark” wasn’t close, the album did “easily sell over 100,000 copies.” Prediction Correct !

Correct✔✔ Incorrect:  (2-1)

4) Jennifer Hudson, JHUD (RCA, 9/23)

Jennifer Hudson, JHUD © RCA

Prediction:

…This is an album that should sell greater than 100,000 copies, but likely will not achieve such a feat. Between 60,000 and 80,000 copies seems possible, and that’s elevated compared to most other R&B acts as of late.  

Result:

Jennifer Hudson had a much worse week than anticipated; JHUD debuted at #10 selling only 24,000 copies.   I technically stated that  “Between 60,000 and 80,000 copies seems possible, and that’s elevated compared to most other R&B acts as of late,” but I didn’t expect JHUD to perform nearly as poorly as it did.  Prediction Dead Wrong! 

Correct✔✔ Incorrect✖✖ (2-2) 

5) Prince, ART OFFICIAL AGE & PLECTRUMELECTRUM (Warner Bros 9/30)

Prince, ART OFFICIAL AGE © Warner Bros

Prediction:

…One album would likely eclipse the other in sales – it’s happened numerous times historically. Likely, I’d bet more on Art Official Age than PLECTRUMELECTRUM, his album with 3rdEyeGirl. Predicting Prince’s sales are difficult, though his recent crop of albums have exceeded 100,000 copies the first week, with the exception being Planet Earth (#3, 96,000 copies).

Result:

No trap for yours truly here.  One album did eclipse the other one for The Purple One as Art Official Age nearly doubled up PLECTRUMELECTRUM’s sales 51,000 vs 26,000. Prediction Correct !

Correct✔✔✔ Incorrect✖✖ (3-2) 

6) Lady Antebellum, 747 (Capitol Nashville, 9/30)

Lady Antebellum, 747 © Capitol Nashville

Prediction:

I expect Lady A will exceed 100,000 copies, but won’t quite match 167,000 copies. If by some chance they do exceed, it won’t be greater than 200,000 copies.

Result:

This one was surprising.  While I wasn’t too impressed with Lady Antebellum’s previous album Golden,  I didn’t expect 747 to only sell 74,000 copies.  Prediction Dead Wrong!  

Correct✔✔✔ Incorrect✖✖✖ (3-3)

7) Jason Aldean, Old Boots New Dirt (Broken Bow, 10/7)

Jason Aldean, Old Boots New Dirt © Broken Bow

Prediction:

Jason Aldean is a hot commodity as far as country music is concerned…look for Aldean to score another #1 album and robust numbers. 200,000 copies wouldn’t be far-fetched…

Result:

Yeah, I’m jumping the gun on this one, but updated prognostications claim that Aldean is a lock for #1 and the numbers are indeed robust between 270,000 and 290,000.  Yep, I predicted too low, but with the key words being in place, I’m giving myself credit! Prediction Mostly Correct ✔!

Correct✔✔✔✔ Incorrect: ✖✖✖ (4-3)

NOW TIME TO PICK UP WHERE WE LEFT OFF THE LAST TIME!

8) Florida Georgia Line, Anything Goes (Big Machine, 10/14)

Florida Georgia Line, Anything Goes © Big Machine Prediction:

“Cruise” was just too big and FGL will reap the benefits in a big way on Anything Goes. At least 200,000 copies (being conservative), but this will likely be an even more robust album.   

Result:

Ultimately, I think I nailed this one for the most part. I did overhype sales a bit by saying 200,000 copies was “being conservative,” but FGL ended up selling 197,000 copies, right at my 200,000 copies prognostication. Prediction Correct !

Correct✔✔✔✔✔ Incorrect✖✖✖ (5-3)

9) Neil Diamond, Melody Road (Capitol, 10/21)

Neil Diamond, Melody Road © Capitol

Prediction:

Neil Diamond likely won’t approach the numbers that Aldean or Florida Georgia Line will experience, but Melody Road’s potential sales shouldn’t be underrated…selling somewhere in the 100,000 copies ballpark seams quite attainable for Diamond. 

Result: 

Eh, I wasn’t extremely off, but not enough to award myself a Correct by any means. I did CORRECTLY state that Melody Road’s sales should be underrated, which ended up being true considering Diamond ended up selling 78,000 copies. Those numbers are better than a lot of artists more than half his age. He didn’t quite reach the 100,000 copies mark. Prediction Dead Wrong incorrect! 

Correct✔✔✔✔✔ Incorrect✖✖✖✖ (5-4) 

10) Taylor Swift, 1989 (Big Machine, 10/27)

Taylor Swift, 1989 © Big Machine Records

Prediction:

Can Swift possibly score a third album that sells a million copies its first week? Yes, it is quite possible, and it would be ill advised to bet against Swift…I hold out the hope that Swift can move a milli, but will prognosticate a bit more conservatively. 500,000 copies minimally, maximally close to the million-mark at 800-900K.   

Result:

Yeah, my record is at .500. I correctly showed optimism that Swift could move a million, but I topped her off at 900,000 copies. Swift, as we know, bested – better yet “beasted” – selling 1.287 millions copies. The difference between 900K and 1.287 are too great for me to fudge. Cuss words, here comes the red marks once more! Prediction Dead Wrong! 

Correct✔✔✔✔✔ Incorrect✖✖✖✖✖ (5-5) 

11) Foo Fighters, Sonic Highways (RCA, 11/10)

Foo Fighters, Sonic Highways © RCA

Prediction:

Foo Fighters should be in line for another #1, but will likely have to fend off a red-hot Taylor Swift, who will likely cling onto that #1 spot. Still, Foo Fighters might just be settling for a robust #2 bow at worst. Easily should sell 150,000 copies – could reach/surpass the 200,000 copies mark, like Wasting Light did in 2011. 

Result: 

Nailed it – take that Taylor Swift! Sonic Highways indeed settled for #2 behind Swift and sold 190,000 copies – right in the ballpark of my estimations. I’m so good. Record is .545. Prediction Correct ✔!

Correct✔✔✔✔✔✔ Incorrect✖✖✖✖✖ (6-5) 

12) One Direction, Four (Columbia, 11/17)

One Direction, Four © Columbia

Prediction: 

One Direction will definitely claim #1 once more, but the question is how much will they sell? 500,000 copies seems quite possible, but there’s also the possibility to surpass or underperform, depending on how their promo singles impact. Still, 500,000 copies seems about right.

Result:

I’m going to say we’ll have and see. Prognostications suggest 400,000 copies+, which would line up with my notion that “500,000 copies seems quite possible, but there’s aso the possibility to surpass or underperform…” Still, I leaned toward 500,000 copies (“Still, 500,000 copies seems about right.). We’ll say that this game is still in the 2nd half and time hasn’t expired yet… STILL IN PROGRESS!

Correct✔✔✔✔✔✔ Incorrect✖✖✖✖✖ (6-5)

Regardless if my One Direction prediction costs me, I’ll be at .500, which in college football is enough to get you bowl eligible… LOL!

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