4th Quarter Albums Prognostication Scorecard


Prince & 3RDEYEGIRL, PLECTRUMELECTRUM © Warner Bros

In September 2014, I penned a post entitled Prognosticating 4th Quarter Albums!, where I gave my predictions for the sales of some notable albums being released in late September and onward.  Now that seven of those albums have sales figures (one going off of official prognostications), let’s see how sound my predicting skills were!

1) Chris Brown, (RCA, 9/16)

Chris Brown, X © RCA

Prediction:

…Brown might open >100,000 as he did with previous albums, or he might find himself underperforming, selling below 100,000 copies.

Result:

Chris Brown debuted at #2, selling 146,000.  That means that the prediction “Brown might open > 100,000 copies” was right.  Prediction Correct ✔!

Correct: ✔ Incorrect: 0

2) Barbra Streisand, Partners (Columbia, 9/16)

Barbra Streisand, Partners © ColumbiaPrediction

Vocal albums tend to do relatively well, and Streisand has managed to maintain a solid following… Being realistic, Streisand will likely sell below 100,000 copies too.

Result:

Barbra Streisand debuted at #1, selling a surprisingly robust 196,000 copies.  Not only was Streisand’s first week big, so was her second and third weeks, selling 127,000 and 73,000 and keeping her firmly planted in the top 3 of the Billboard 200.  Prediction Dead Wrong! 

Correct: ✔ Incorrect: ✖

3) Lady Gaga & Tony Bennett, Cheek to Chee(Columbia/ Interscope, etc. 9/23)

Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga, Cheek To Cheek © Streamline/Columbia/Interscope

Prediction:

Cheek to Cheek should easily sell over 100,000 copies, possibly closer to the 200,000+ copies mark Duets reached years ago (NOTEDuets II debuted at #1, but sold 179,000 copies).

Result:

Cheek To Cheek debuted at #1, selling 131,000.  While the “possibly closer to the 200,000+ copies mark” wasn’t close, the album did “easily sell over 100,000 copies.” Prediction Correct ✔!

Correct: ✔✔ Incorrect: ✖

4) Jennifer Hudson, JHUD (RCA, 9/23)

Jennifer Hudson, JHUD © RCAPrediction

…This is an album that should sell greater than 100,000 copies, but likely will not achieve such a feat. Between 60,000 and 80,000 copies seems possible, and that’s elevated compared to most other R&B acts as of late.

Result:

Jennifer Hudson had a much worse week than anticipated; JHUD debuted at #10 selling only 24,000 copies.   I technically stated that  “Between 60,000 and 80,000 copies seems possible, and that’s elevated compared to most other R&B acts as of late,” but I didn’t expect JHUD to perform nearly as poorly as it did.  Prediction Dead Wrong! 

Correct: ✔✔ Incorrect: ✖✖

5) Prince, ART OFFICIAL AGE & PLECTRUMELECTRUM (Warner Bros 9/30)

Prince, ART OFFICIAL AGE © Warner Bros

Prediction

…One album would likely eclipse the other in sales – it’s happened numerous times historically. Likely, I’d bet more on Art Official Age than PLECTRUMELECTRUM, his album with 3rdEyeGirl. Predicting Prince’s sales are difficult, though his recent crop of albums have exceeded 100,000 copies the first week, with the exception being Planet Earth (#3, 96,000 copies).

Result:

No trap for yours truly here.  One album did eclipse the other one for The Purple One as Art Official Age nearly doubled up PLECTRUMELECTRUM’s sales 51,000 vs 26,000. Prediction Correct ✔!

Correct: ✔✔✔ Incorrect: ✖✖

6) Lady Antebellum, 747 (Capitol Nashville, 9/30)

Lady Antebellum, 747 © Capitol Nashville

Prediction

I expect Lady A will exceed 100,000 copies, but won’t quite match 167,000 copies. If by some chance they do exceed, it won’t be greater than 200,000 copies.

Result

This one was surprising.  While I wasn’t too impressed with Lady Antebellum’s previous album Golden,  I didn’t expect 747 to only sell 74,000 copies.  Prediction Dead Wrong! 

 Correct: ✔✔✔ Incorrect: ✖✖✖

7) Jason Aldean, Old Boots New Dirt (Broken Bow, 10/7)

Jason Aldean, Old Boots New Dirt © Broken Bow

Prediction:

Jason Aldean is a hot commodity as far as country music is concerned…look for Aldean to score another #1 album and robust numbers. 200,000 copies wouldn’t be far-fetched…

Result:

Yeah, I’m jumping the gun on this one, but updated prognostications claim that Aldean is a lock for #1 and the numbers are indeed robust between 270,000 and 290,000.  Yep, I predicted too low, but with the key words being in place, I’m giving myself credit! Prediction Mostly Correct ✔!

 Correct: ✔✔✔✔ Incorrect: ✖✖✖

Final tally:

 Correct 4Incorrect 3 

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