Lana Del Rey & Sam Smith Have Reason to Smile, J. Lo Not so much


Lana Del Rey, Ultraviolence © InterscopeBillboard prognosticates that three albums are expected to sell more than 100,000 copies this week.  This is something that the music industry desperately needs to happen, given the slow sales of 2014.  Those three artists and their respective albums expected to accomplish that feat are Lana Del Rey (Ultraviolence), Sam Smith (In the Lonely Hour), and Linkin Park (The Hunting Party).  Other albums that should makes some waves, albeit smaller include new releases from Willie Nelson (Band of Brothers), Jennifer Lopez (A.K.A.), and the forgotten release of the bunch, deadmau5 (1 < 2).

The numbers are improved compared to the rest of sales in 2014, but moving back just last year for third Tuesday June releases, the numbers were much more amplified.  That was the week that Kanye West, J. Cole, and Mac Miller all sold >100,000, but West and Cole greatly exceeded that number with 327,000 and 297,000 copies sold respectively.

The prognostications project a number one album for Del Rey, with an approximate figure of 175,000 – 180,000 copies sold.  That’s nowhere near approaching the 300,000+ opening week for Yeezus. Smith, who will likely settle for second place, is aiming at 150,000, nearly half of J. Cole’s runner-up totals last year.  Linkin Park’s prognostications are inline with the sales of Mac Miller’s Watching Movies With the Sound Off.

With numbers in for each artist, examining how prognosticated numbers match up with career numbers seems appropriate, right? For the following six artists/albums, we’ll assign a “smile” for a positive sales outlook or a “FROWN!” for negative sales outlook.

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Lana Del Rey, Ultraviolence

Outlook: Smile

Del Rey has no reasons to be as moody as she is on Ultraviolence given her potential sales and a number one album.  This is definitely an upgrade for Del Rey.

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 Sam Smith, In the Lonely Hour

Outlook: Smile

While many (including myself) might’ve been pulling for a number one album for the British newcomer,  the numbers prognosticated by Billboard are exceptional for a new artist, particularly in the present musical economy.

812ilRd87kL._SL1500_ Linkin Park, The Hunting Party 

Outlook: FROWN!

Linkin Park have had much better sales weeks than are expected for The Hunting PartyLiving Things, their previous album, debuted with 223,000 copies sold.  The numbers are looking suspect for LP.

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Willie Nelson, Band of Brothers

Outlook: Smile

Nelson is in his eighties and still selling albums – whatever he were to sell at this point would receive a “smile.”

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Jennifer Lopez, A.K.A.

Outlook: FROWN!

J. Lo, gone are the days where you ruled the charts.  The 30,000 – 35,000 copies prognosticated does NOT match up with Lopez’s sales from the past, even as of late.   2011 comeback album LOVE? debuted at number five, selling a respectable 83,000 copies.

71KIBr4lB-L._SL1500_ deadmau5, 1 < 2 

Outlook: FROWN!

Deadmau5 definitely has the raw end of the stick among the crowded June 17, 2014 album releases.  Being the least visible album of the six is a knock in itself.  But then when you research the numbers previous album 4X4=12 moved – 58,000 copies good for a number six bow – well, it’s a big old frown for Joel Zimmerman.

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